Market Commentary

Markets absorbed a week of mixed signals, with strength in headline data masking underlying fragility and inflation trends complicating the path forward.

U.S. consumer confidence fell modestly in October, with The Conference Board’s headline index easing to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 in September. The decline reflected weaker expectations for business, income, and employment over the next six months, while consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved slightly.

The most impactful release of the week was Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Both headline and core CPI came in slightly below expectations, with core CPI rising 0.2% versus 0.3% anticipated. Given the Fed’s preference for core inflation as a gauge of underlying price pressures, this softer print suggests inflation is sticky but trending lower, though still above the Fed’s target.